Breeders Cup 2019 Classic Contenders
With the Kentucky Derby (G1) less than 6 weeks away, I’m back for my second year of analyzing some of the top contenders’ pedigrees.
Breeders Cup 2019 Classic Contenders Odds
This week’s subject: Proxy
He has not won a race since October 2018. Last seen, he ran third in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile behind Knicks Go and Jesus’ Team. Half of his eight victories were at nine furlongs, but only one of them was on dirt. Sleepy Eyes Todd (12-1 – Paddy O’ Prado – M. Gaffalione – 15: 8-2-0 - $744,825). Last year was a very. The Jockey Club of Saudi Arabia, amid new uncertainty about travel, has announced a likely field for the $20 million Saudi Cup on Feb. 20 that would pit American runners Charlatan, Knicks Go,. A closer look at 20 contenders for the 2021 Kentucky. Gaffalione won the 2019 Preakness with War of Will. His sire is star stallion and two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic runner-up Medaglia d. The son of Paynter ran the distance in 1:47.89 while earning an automatic berth in the $20 million Saudi Cup Feb. Knicks Go, a Grade 1 winner at 2, had gone winless in 2019 before being transferred to Cox’s stable in 2020. The Maryland-bred 5-year-old won all three of his races last year, including the Nov. 7 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1).
A Godolphin homebred with a career record of 5-2-3-0 and $187,700 earned so far, he’s yet to win a Kentucky Derby (G1)prep race but seems to be knocking on the door of such an accomplishment. Trainer Mike Stidham is currently without a major Derby prep win in his career.
Kentucky Derby Ranking
Proxy is currently fourth in the Kentucky Derby point standings with 24. He earned those finishing a close second in both the Lecomte Stakes (G3) and theRisen Star Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds, the latter of which was won by last week’s subject, Mandaloun.
Most people have Proxy on their Kentucky Derby contenders radar, but until he proves that he can win a graded stakes, he most likely won’t be seen among the top 5. If Proxy wins the 2021 Kentucky Derby, he’ll be just the second horse to do so after finishing second in the Risen Star; Country House was second back in 2019.
Let’s see if Proxy’s pedigree has what it takes come the first Saturday in May.
Sire Profile
Tapit
Major career wins: 2003 Laurel Futurity (G3), 2004 Wood Memorial (G1)
Tapit had a short yet successful racing career that is often overlooked due to his tremendous success as a stallion. His career record of 6-3-0-0 included the 2004 Wood Memorial (G1), and while his 2004 Run for the Roses didn’t go nearly as well (he finished a distant ninth to Smarty Jones), his career as a stallion has more than made up for it.
With a bloodline that includes Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew and the breed-shaping Mr. Prospector on both the sire and the dam sides of the family, it’s no surprise how impactful Tapit became as a stallion. Currently standing at Gainsway for $185,000, Tapit has sired 27 Grade 1 winners and had over 30 yearlings sell for at least $1 million at auction.
While the best that his sons have done in the Kentucky Derby was Tacitus’ third in 2019, he’s the grandsire of the 2020 runner-up Tiz the Law, and Tapit’s greatest Triple Crown impact has come in the Belmont Stakes (G1). Since 2014, Tapit-sired horses have a record of 10-3-2-2 in the Belmont, with wins coming from Tonalist (2014), Creator (2015), and Tapwrit (2017).
With all of Tapit’s success as a sire, it seems like only a matter of time before he finally sires a Kentucky Derby winner. Could Proxy be the one?
Dam Profile
Panty Raid
Major career wins: 2007 Black-Eyed Susan (G2), 2007 American Oaks Invitational (G1), 2007 Juddemonte Spinster (G1).
Panty Raid finished her racing career with a record of 10-5-1-1 that included 3 graded stakes wins, and of those, 2 were Grade 1s at 1 1/8 and 1 1/4 miles. Not only was she able to run at a high level, but she did so at the classic distance, a positive sign for Proxy’s backers. While her bloodline doesn’t jump off the page at first glance, it’s sneaky good for aspiring routers.
Her sire Include was a multiple graded stakes victor in the 2001 New Orleans Handicap (G2) at 1 1/8 miles and the 2001 Pimlico Special (G1) at 1 3/16 miles. Her full sister St. John’s River retired with a record of 10-2-5-2, highlighted by winning the 2011 Delaware Oaks (G2) and finishing second in the 2011 Kentucky Oaks (G1).
As a broodmare, Panty Raid has had eight foals and five that raced. Of those who made a starting gate, four found victory, including multiple turf stakes winner Micheline (the 2019 Sorority, the 2020 Honey Ryder, and the 2020 Dueling Ground Oaks). Panty Raid has yet to have a foal win a dirt stakes, a bit concerning considering the number of foals she’s produced, but Proxy has been close twice. Stamina is not an issue for her foals, as Proxy and Micheline have shown.
Panty Raid was bred to Frosted in 2021, a positive sign that Godolphin is continuing to breed her to one of their newer top stallions.
Overall, I think Proxy is one of those horses who may get up for a piece in the Kentucky Derby, but from what we’ve seen so far, I’m not sure he’s good enough to win. There’s still plenty of time for him to improve, which his pedigree suggests he should continue to do, so if he stays healthy, he has the potential to make a lot of noise in this crop.
Let me know what you think!
Vinny Blond is a New York-based handicapper who is one half of Real Dynasty Picks. Follow him on Twitter @PicksByDynasty.
Korea Racing Authority’s Knicks Go came out of his brilliant victory in Saturday’s $3 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) at Gulfstream Park in good order, reported trainer Brad Cox Sunday afternoon.
“The horse looked really good last night. This morning, he flew back to New Orleans. He just arrived at the Fair Grounds and all is well,” Cox stated in a text message.
Knicks Go, the 6-5 favorite ridden by Joel Rosario, took early command of the 1 1/8-mile race for older horses and crossed the finish line 2 ¾ lengths ahead of Jesus’ Team. The son of Paynter ran the distance in 1:47.89 while earning an automatic berth in the $20 million Saudi Cup Feb. 20.
Knicks Go, a Grade 1 winner at 2, had gone winless in 2019 before being transferred to Cox’s stable in 2020. The Maryland-bred 5-year-old won all three of his races last year, including the Nov. 7 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1).
Grupo 7C Racing Stable’s Jesus’ Team spent Sunday morning frolicking in the round pen outside trainer Jose D’Angelo’s barn at Palm Meadows, Gulfstream’s satellite training facility in Palm Beach County.
“Jesus came out of the race very good,” D’Angelo said. “When I brought him back to Palm Meadows [Saturday] night, he was ready to go again. He was not tired.”
Jesus’ Team, who had finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1), made a wide sweep into the stretch under Irad Ortiz Jr. and closed steadily to finish second behind the Cox trainee again, edging Independence Hall for second money. The former $25,000 claimer became a millionaire Saturday with the $580,000 purse for his third Grade 1 stakes placing.
Although D’Angelo has driven Jesus’ Team wherever he has traveled this year, the 30-year-old trainer won’t be able to hit the road with the son of Tapiture for his next start. The owners of Jesus’ Team are awaiting invitations for the $20 Million Saudi Cup Feb. 20 and the $12 million Dubai World Cup (G1) March 27.
“The owners will make the decision where he will race next,” D’Angelo said.
Contenders For Breeders Cup Classic 2019
Robert and Lawana Low’s Colonel Liam, the $1 million Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational (G1) winner; Repole Stable’s Always Shopping, who captured the La Prevoyante (G3), and the other Todd Pletcher-trained runners who competed on the Pegasus World Cup Day card were ‘excellent’ Sunday morning.
“Everybody seemed to be sound this morning and in good shape,” Pletcher said.
Colonel Liam, who was coming off a victory in the Tropical Park Derby at Gulfstream, rallied from off the pace to capture his Grade 1 debut by neck over Pletcher-trained Largent in the 1 3/16-mile Pegasus Turf. Pletcher’s other Pegasus Turf starter, Social Paranoia finished fourth, a half-length behind third-place finisher Cross Border. Pletcher said there were no firm plans for his Pegasus Turf starters’ next starts.
“The race I have in mind for Colonel Liam is the Woodford Reserve on Derby Day, so the question is kind of what we do between now and then,” Pletcher said. “The other two we’ve got some options with, so we’ll give it a week and kind of survey the landscape and see what the right moves are.”
In addition to saddling Colonel Liam and Always Shopping for graded-stakes victories, Pletcher also visited the winner’s circle with Microsecond following a sharp optional claiming allowance win.
“It was a great day. We were a couple of noses short of having a really terrific day but anytime you have all the horses show up and for the most part run their races, that’s all you can hope for,” Pletcher said. “We were fortunate to win three of them, so it was a successful day”